SHFE Tin Market Post-Holiday Outlook: Supply-Demand Imbalance and Price Gameplay Amid Fluctuations at Highs [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, February 24, 2026

During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE tin market was closed, while LME tin prices experienced high volatility. Prices retreated after a rapid rise before the holiday: In the week preceding the Spring Festival, tin prices rose sharply, driven by three factors: expectations of overseas macro easing, tight domestic supply, and just-in-time restocking ahead of the holiday. However, on the last trading day before the holiday (February 13), the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 365,400 yuan/mt, plunging 7.05% in a single day, influenced by stronger-than-expected US CPI data reinforcing concerns about "higher rates for longer," a rebound in the US dollar, widespread pre-holiday production halts among downstream enterprises, and risk-off capital outflows. Supply side, in February, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, most major domestic smelters underwent planned maintenance shutdowns, and tin ingot production is expected to decline. Although there are expectations of a gradual recovery in ore imports from Myanmar, tightening Indonesian quota policies pose a rigid constraint. Demand side, post-holiday, as traders and downstream enterprises in solder, electronics, and PV gradually resume production, just-in-time procurement is expected to recover gradually. However, the current absolute price level of tin remains at historically high levels, which may continue to suppress the willingness and intensity of stockpiling by downstream enterprises, and the pace of demand recovery is likely to be moderate. Post-holiday, SHFE tin is expected to continue experiencing wide swings at highs. On the downside, tight ore supply and low inventory provide solid support for prices; on the upside, high prices' suppression of actual consumption will form significant resistance. Overall, the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE tin contract post-holiday is forecasted to be 360,000-400,000 yuan/mt. The market needs to closely monitor the actual post-holiday progress of downstream production resumptions, the strength of restocking demand, and the specific implementation of Indonesia's export policies.